We’re doing a series of mock drafts here, but the Fantasy League of Experts (a.k.a. “FLEX”) is a REAL draft with REAL stakes.
I mean, okay, fine — Jake only made the drafters pay $10 to cover the cost of the belt. But still… all the participants traveled to New York to do this live on SiriusXM. So we’ll just keep throwing the pancakes on the pile here of why these results matter.
As an outsider who Jake has never invited to FLEX, I have an objective view of things and wanted to run through a few elements that caught my eye…
The setup
There are four FLEX leagues — a SuperFlex, a best ball conducted online, and these two more traditional leagues that draft in NYC the first week of August. The draft I’m looking at is half-PPR scoring, 12 teams, 16 rounds, no kickers.
The @FLEX_Leagues kick of #FantasyFootball Draft SZN Saturday on @SiriusXMFantasy
11a 1QB Snake with @JeffRatcliffe
1p SuperFlex with me and @chrismeaney
Everyone chasing sweet @TrophySmack belts like these! https://t.co/gl4ZUa1izH pic.twitter.com/9gNJ1kqRnk
— Jake Ciely (@allinkid) August 4, 2023
The draft board
For all the wonderful things Sleeper does, their draft boards have a massive flaw — there’s a giant vertical sidebar covering the team picking first. No matter how small you make the text, you will never see that first team. Here’s a link to the board if you don’t believe me. (Ed. Note: First person who figures out how to remove that sidebar, I’ll personally extend your subscription for a year).
So here’s the best I can do: Pat Thorman picked at 1.1 and his team looked like this:
| 1.1 |
| J. Jefferson |
| WR – MIN |
| 2.12 |
| C. Olave |
| WR – NO |
| 3.1 |
| B. Hall |
| RB – NYJ |
| 4.12 |
| J. Jeudy |
| WR – DEN |
| 5.1 |
| A. Mattison |
| RB – MIN |
| 6.12 |
| M. Williams |
| WR – LAC |
| 7.1 |
| K. Pitts |
| TE – ATL |
| 8.12 |
| D. Watson |
| QB – CLE |
| 9.1 |
| E. Moore |
| WR – CLE |
| 10.12 |
| J. Warren |
| RB – PIT |
| 11.1 |
| T. Bigsby |
| RB – JAX |
| 12.12 |
| D. Chark |
| WR – CAR |
| 13.1 |
| J. Ford |
| RB – CLE |
| 14.12 |
| L. Fournette |
| RB – |
| 15.1 |
| M. Valdes-Scantling |
| WR – KC |
| 16.12 |
| C. Panthers |
| DEF – CAR |
Here’s the rest of the board. And please note that this draft was held before Dalvin Cook and Ezekiel Elliott signed.
Best Selection
If all backs are healthy, there are not six running backs who will outscore Derrick Henry in fantasy. Every season the experts take backs they have projected to outscore Henry — and most years these backs do not.
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At the end of the day, Henry being the most dominant back in the NFL should matter when drafting… and it never seems to. Christian McCaffrey, Bijan Robinson, Austin Ekeler, Saquon Barkley, Nick Chubb and Tony Pollard all were drafted in the first round ahead of Henry — which allowed the veteran running back to be available with the final selection of the first round. So now the Woo Fantasy Podcast got Henry and followed him up with Amon-Ra St. Brown with the first pick of the second round. Which, by the way, is also looking like great value when you see what the high stakes players are currently doing:
Amon-Ra St.Brown went 1.07 in an @FFPC this week.
Continues to steam up draft boards. 📈📈📈
— TheOGfantasyfootball (@TheOGfantasy) August 13, 2023
Biggest Head Scratcher
Yes, we all believe that Bijan Robinson will be a great back in the NFL — but is he going to be the second-best RB in fantasy? How could anyone know — he has yet to take a snap in an NFL game. And yet Andrew Erickson drafted him above every proven running back in fantasy not named Christian McCaffrey.
It could obviously work out but it is a tremendous risk with backs like Henry, Ekeler, Chubb, and Barkley available. There are those who believe Bijan will be a major factor as a pass receiver but there is a good chance he will share time in the Falcons backfield with two backs who are more than capable of carrying the weight themselves. If Tyler Allgeier and Cordarrelle Patterson still garner significant touches, this will be a disastrous selection. In fact, the only way the pick is justified is if Robinson finishes as a top fantasy performer — not just one of the best backs.
Feast or Famine Roster
Colton & The Wolfman constructed the type of roster that can cause a lot of stress for a fantasy manager (or managers, in the case of famed duo Rick and Glenn). They have a bunch of players who can be top scorers one week and fantasy duds the next. It’s a roster that has accumulated a lot of injury time over the past few years: McCaffrey, Travis Etienne, Chris Godwin, Dak Prescott, Evan Engram, Odell Beckham, Elijah Mitchell, Michael Gallup, Cole Kmet, and Kenyan Drake have all missed significant time.
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Most, if not all of these names came with safer options still on the board when they were selected. It’s an interesting move to bring so many players with a substantial injury history. If they all stay healthy, it could be a great season, but if they begin to deal with injuries it could be all over before it ever truly begins.
QB Mid-Round Draft Run
Josh Allen was the first quarterback taken off the board and that didn’t come until late in the third round when Alfredo Brown grabbed him. Two picks later Patrick Mahomes was selected, then Jalen Hurts came off the board two spots later. Six picks after that, Lamar Jackson was chosen. The two Justins were selected in round five.
It is amazing to watch fantasy players who know how valuable the elite quarterbacks are wait so long to take them while selecting players who are WR2 on their respective teams and running backs who will likely be in a committee. The elites at quarterback are usually the highest scorers in fantasy and the difference between them and the next tier of quarterbacks is palpable.
Best Roster — Woo Fantasy Podcast, picking at No. 12
When you can get King Henry with the last pick of the first round and Patrick “Mahomie” with the first pick of the fourth round, you are doing something right.
The roster boasts Henry, Dameon Pierce, and James Conner, who will all receive the lion’s share of the carries for their teams. Plus, you get a wild card in Dalvin Cook who could be an injection of life for the Jets. St. Brown should garner a massive amount of targets and Brandon Aiyuk is in position to have another great season. Dallas Goedert should continue his ascent as the weapons aging him continue to grow. Receivers like Tyler Boyd, Darnell Mooney, Jakobi Meyers and Skyy Moore — all of those players can have a breakout week every week. It is an overall well manicured roster and it should yield major dividends this year in the Flex League.
Overall, every fantasy manager has a legitimate chance to win the championship. With so much knowledge in the league, the winner will likely be the manager who has the healthiest roster, or the one who starts the right back or receiver on a particular week. The trash talk has surely already begun and it will be fun to watch the action unfold throughout the season.
(Top photo: Megan Briggs/Getty Images)
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